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Economic forces, consumer demand, seasonality, natural disasters and myriad other factors contribute to transport's cyclical market.
The charts below show the latest data on Class 8 truck orders, trailer orders, monthly tonnage, linehaul rates and load-to-truck ratios. We'll update this page frequently as new data is released.
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Load-to-truck ratios
Load-to-truck ratios from DAT Freight & Analytics serve as indicators of supply and demand in the spot market. The ratio is calculated based on the number of load posts compared to the number of truck posts on the DAT One load board. Ratio changes can signal upcoming fluctuations in spot rates.
Load-to-truck ratios varied across equipment types the week of March 17, compared to the previous seven-day period. DAT reported:
- Dry van increased from 3.2 to 3.3 loads per truck
- Reefer remained flat at just under 5 loads per truck
- Flatbed increased from 17.9 to 19.7 loads per truck
"Dry van load post volume decreased by 2% last week but was up 15% month-over-month (m/m) and 3% year-over-year (y/y)," Principal Analyst Dean Croke wrote in a blog post. Reefer volumes decreased, a reversal to a weekslong progression of increases, and flatbed volume increased for a seventh consecutive week.
Load-to-truck ratios
Spot linehaul rates
DAT’s linehaul rates measure the seven-day weekly moving average for spot rates in dry van, reefer and flatbed hauls. They often reflect the balance of supply and demand in the spot market. The rates are derived from DAT’s RateView database and do not include a fuel surcharge.
National benchmark average rates varied across equipment types the week beginning March 17, compared to the previous week, per DAT:
- Dry van decreased by about 1 cent to $1.55
- Reefer decreased by 3 cents to $1.84
- Flatbed rose by 4 cents to $1.98
Spot market linehaul rates have largely been flat for the past month, DAT noted on a blog. While rates have flattened out, they show signs of rising, the firm also reported.
Spot linehaul rates
Tonnage
The American Trucking Associations has been tracking tonnage, calculating the index based on member surveys, since the 1970s. In the chart below, the baseline is 100, which represents conditions in 2015. Tonnage primarily reflects freight movement through contracts versus on the spot market.
The ATA Truck Tonnage Index increased 4.3% in February to 116 compared to the previous month when seasonally adjusted. The organization also revised January's figure upward to 111.3.
“February’s level was the highest in a year, yet the index still contracted from a year earlier, suggesting truck freight remains in a recession,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said in a monthly report.
For-hire truck tonnage index
Trailers
Net trailer orders increased 37% to 21,331 units from January to February, according to FTR data. That was an 18% drop YoY.
“The increase in production coupled with the fall in backlogs resulted in some downward change to the backlog-to-build ratio, which stands at 5.7 months,” FTR Chairman Eric Starks said in a monthly report. “This ratio is right in line with the average level for the last half of 2023 and is slightly below the historical average prior to 2020.”
Net U.S. trailer orders
Truckload linehaul rates
The Truckload Linehaul Index from Cass measures per-mile linehaul rates. In the chart below, the baseline is 100, which represents conditions in 2005. Rates fluctuate as a result of supply, demand and balance (or a lack thereof) in the market, but they also include factors such as fuel prices and insurance costs.
The index, which includes spot and contract freight, decreased in February by 0.1% to 140.5, Cass reported. That’s a 5.4% decline year over year, but the "index has been in a very tight range from 140.4 to 142.0 over the past eight months as the market rebalances," wrote the report’s author, Tim Denoyer of ACT Research.
Truckload Linehaul Index
Class 8 orders
Preliminary Class 8 net orders increased 11% year over year in February, rising to 25,700 units last month, according to a report from FTR.
The figure is above seasonal expectations, but consistent with recent demand trends, according to the intelligence firm. Build slots continue to be filled, and recent demand trends have stabilized at a level 10,000 units lower than November 2023's peak — staving off concerns of a "rapid easing of demand in 2024."
"Despite the weakness in the freight markets that has persisted for more than a year, fleets continue to be willing to order new equipment," Eric Starks, chairman of the board at FTR, said in the report. "Order levels were above the historical average and above seasonal trends, but our expectations for replacement output by the end of this year remain unchanged.”